The Coming Anarchy - Kaplan
Kaplan intends to write this article as a cautionary message to the Western Civilisation for what is in store for them with and the Western Liberal Democratic Order. Through his journalistic work in West Africa he attempts to highlight how these developments in West Africa are a reality that we might also have to deal with in the near future. The subtext of his provocative heading is as follows : how scarcity, overpopulation, tribalism and disease are destroying the social fabric of our society. This is an apt summary of his ideas. The argument is that they have already destroyed the social fabric of West Africa, and that it now coming for us, thus the coming anarchy
He devotes the first part of his article to understanding and analyse the present situation in Western African states, such as Sierra Leone, Togo, Ivory Coast. He notices the rampant poverty and the absolute absence of hygiene and sanitation. The rising deforestation in these States is also a contributing factor to their despair. The absence of any forest cover leads to rainwater stagnation breeding malaria infested mosquitoes. The absence of Islam (he observes through his anecdotal encounter with a Minister) also has diluted the social fabric making it difficult for young boys and girls to find any firm ground in faith, kith and kin. The absence of a clearly defined social structure, rampant polygamy and absence of public awareness has lead to an uncontrollable population boom in these State's. Rampant rural - urban migration has also lead to the creation of large slums such as Chicago. He also highlights the statelessness in these nations. In the absence of any public service mechanism, a functional beaurocracy and a powerful military there prevails anarchy. Kaplan brings to us a world view that is foreign and is not compatible with the current pre-occupation of political theory. He does not bring to us stories of weak states, but utter statelessness. He is able to aptly highlight how the dominant discourse surrounding these post-Westphalian states is not compatible with the situation in Africa. The argument is no longer focussed on the strengthening of state institutions it is rather concerned with the absence of a state-like institution in the first place. He holds that the fate of Africa is as important to world peace today as the Balkans were almost 130 years ago. The situation in Africa is worse considering the environmental pressure and overpopulation which are two factor's unique to Africa (in comparison to the Balkans)
He thus focusses on the following issues
1. Environmental Scarcity
2. Cultural and Racial Clash
3. Geographic Destiny
4. Transformation of War
Environmental Scarcity
Climate Change and Global Warming are the largest existential threats to humanity period. These particular issues must reform national security policy in the 22nd Century
Future wars are going to be fought for access to resources such as water. Democracy will do nothing to save these states. There is no other way to solve this problem later and no mediation or 'peace hypothesis' will come to save us. 'Democracy is problematic, Scarcity is certain'.
The Saddam Hussain's of the future will have more resources and opportunities to mobilise large swathes of the population in favour of violent 'revolution', building tribalism.
A large population will be sheltered through the cloak of ideology, the end of it perhaps. They will in suburbs and opine about reaching the zenith of human ideology entering a post-historical state, while others will be stuck in history. This has been beautifully represented by Homer Dixon through the stretch limo analogy. While developed post-industrial nations sit in the stretch limo believing themselves to be in an air-conditioned post-human, post-ideology, post-truth, post-historical state of affairs, they other nations have to deal with the harsh realities of the potholed streets of Mumbai (though he uses NY).
Homer Dixon argues that 'we need to bring nature back into the mainstream discourse'. For a very long time we have been fixed in the social-social theory, which argues that there are only social causes to socio-political problems. Today they are not only a result of social-phenomenon, but are actively shaped by factor's such as the environment.
The world is being bifurcated. A part of it habited by Hegel's Last Man (Fukuyama's Book - End of History and the Last Man) while the other habited by Hobbes's First Man living in the State of Nature.
Dixon specifically points to the degradation of soil taking place in all parts of the World. The worst degradation is where the population is the highest. India is also one of these states, where the over-utilisation, of soil paired with the indiscriminate use of supplements is reducing fertility.
China is similarly affected by this crisis, this is why as per Dixon China's 14% growth is not sustainable until it takes measures to make sure the soil is rejuvenated. It also is bound to lead to an impending food scarcity.
The Question of Civilisational War
Kaplan deals with the issues of Huntington's arguments in the The Clash of Civilizations (1993) as he tries to analyse sources of conflict. Why is Huntington necessary because he represents another story of how human civilisation is bound to enter into a new era of crisis. He argues that the source of conflict is the civilisational identity of each individual and is no longer a war of nations, princes or ideology. Kaplan argues that the problem with his theory generally is his kin-based understanding of foreign policy. As per this idea, those nations that share a common civilisation are part of the same supranational family and are bound to come to help of each other. This Kaplan argues is not supported by empirical evidence though appears to be a sound theory. He substantiates his point through the example of the conflict in Azerbaijan and Armenia. He argues that in the present conflict, Armenia has found its ally in Iran which is a Islamic State. Huntington's thesis could not imagine such an alliance, which is not based on a civilisational identity but rather a quid pro quo relation of My Enemy's Enemy is My Friend. The conflict in Azerbaijan thus is a anomaly to Huntington's thesis of Civilisational Conflict. He notes that while it the Balkan's could become a hotbed for civilisational war between Orthodox Christianity and Islam, it is also becoming a site of conflict between Turkic and Iranian civilisation. This he states is an example of how the West has helped develop enmity within the House of Islam, thus substantially reducing the threat of any such civilisational conflict reaching its shores. This tribalism Kaplan states is even more dangerous than the world that Huntington envisions. Paired with other aggravating factors such as 'environment' it has become a breeding ground for more conflict. Environment and civilisation are not the only two forces.
The Migration Factor
For Kaplan, understanding conflict also requires a sound understanding of the social order. The increasing migration from rural villages to the urban shantytowns such as Golden Mountain is an example of how the proverbial past is dead. "The Past is Dead and We have killed it". He argues that the elites are completely out of touch for the aspirations of those that are now being integrated into the larger urbanised societies. These uprooted trees have been transplanted into a urban culture that is foreign to them and they are thus creating their own rules of social organisation as they deal with their glamourized surroundings. In this chaos he brings back Islam. He argues that the only indication of order in this cosmopolitan frenzy was the universally accepted principles of Islam. That is the form of order. But that reality is also constantly changing. The orthodox women are having a hard time dealing with the concept of Television in 1994, cut to 2024 the standards of obscenity and morality would have moulded so as to allow or permit the watching of television shows. So the religious and civilisational boundries are also constantly being pushed.
What is also also very interesting is the fact that for these people to deal with the reality of their civilisational history. The confused reaction of the squatters to the long, lost Ottoman Empire was a very important and poignant argument made. This also in my opinion critiques the arguments that Huntington is trying to make. Civilisational revivalism is going to appear confusing to those who experience the excruciating force of reality, that is poverty, illiteracy and malnutrition. The irony implicit in such pompous assertions is quite evident.
Islam is also interesting because it creates a very conflicting condition. On the one hand we accept that urban poverty is socially destabilising, and thus Islam provides a way to keep millions happy even in the most impoverished conditions, and on the contrary it is also the 'only religion willing and ready to fight' implying that it is also these impoverished conditions which lead to the militarisation of the youth. The Islam of West Africa is the second of these. While in Türkiye Islam is awkwardly forming some form of a flimsy alliance between civilisational identity and modernity. Thus the movement of power is northward from oil now to water.
Map-Makers
For Kaplan maps are conceptually very limiting. They disable us from thinking beyond borders. The study of conflict is inherently limited by the focus on the threat outside. Kaplan attempts to argue that in this regard maps are deceiving as they are unable to point to the internal political cracks that are present within nation states, which act as fuel for international conflict. The modernisation of Europe brought with it the force of nation building. Identity became very important, and modernity brought with it the tendency to classify and categorise. The nation state is one such categorisation. It materialises that which is immaterial into that which is material. But for many the nation is an arbitrary and inaccurate imposition of what is really there. While the Turkish people got Türkiye, the Persians got Iran, the Kurds who are peppered around the entirety of the Middle East donot have any particular nation state which recognises their needs and aspirations.
Kaplan argues that it is the Kurds who are the natural selectors of the Post Cold War Era. He argues that post the Cold War, when nations in such 'strategic parts of the world' are not propped up for regional positioning, they are bound to enter into a war of natural selection. That which remains after this natural selection war is bound to remain in existence. The Kurds are the natural selectors of the Middle East. Those states that give them recognition are stabilised by their presence, and those who don't are destroyed by them (Iraq).
Coming back to the point regarding maps, for Kaplan the Turkish Kurdish conflict is more important. The Kurds represent a cartographic reality that cannot be displayed in two dimensional maps. In Türkiye the answer is not giving a federal autonomous state in the southeast . The problem is much larger. Kurds are the proverbial Parsis of India, completely integrated and dissolved into the larger Turkish state, they are not confined to the south east. Türkiye is at the precipice of conflict.
New Kind of War
The nature of war is changing. The places where Western Enlightenment has not had the chance to percolate, war is seen as an end in itself. Van Creveld attempts to destroy this notion that 'Man is averse to war'. He on the contrary wishes to argue that violence is a natural from of human expression. It is the act of violence which is now acting as a liberating force. People in economically backward societies consider war not as a step down by a step up from where they are in their lives. Conflict also serves as a great distraction from the real problems facing a particular population. The point that is generally being made is that war is inevitable. The question is not of whether there is a war or not, the question is in what form
Creveld argues that in the post-modern conflict, the strict divisions between the State, the civilians and the military are now breaking down. The radius of trust within societies is breaking down and is reaching that of tribalism. The sphere of trust is thus only limited to family, kin, clan and tribe. Those that come from a different family, different clan or tribe are thus approached with great suspicion. The word that Creveld uses is re-primitivisation. The post-Westphalian state envisaged by Creveld in Kaplan's view is not a superficial being. Technology is not being used today to being societies together, it is rather being used by highly divided societies to full-fill their own independent propaganda. He states that as the monopoly of the State with respect to arms reduces, the distinction between war and crime will break down. Similarly the question of national security, will be very distinct from what is now. The fundamental concern is that of tribal survivability in the presence of increasingly scarce resources. The presence of PMS and PMC's is a substantial step in the new age war. The fall of the state would also imply the absence of any equalising force in society thereby making societies focus on their specific strengths and weaknesses. Personal security will become more important than ideological or nationalist perspectives
The Last Map
The Last Map is an idea developed by Buttimer which argues that the conventional cartographical definitions are not going to aid us. Buttimer imagines a map with a 3 dimensional hologram. The two dimensional nation and city state markings give way to cultural and group identities messily cutting the sovereign borders of various states. The Last Map is given its name because of its inherent nature of always changing and altering its state. A representation of chaos.
He argues that one such chaotic region is Southeast Asia specifically India, and Pakistan. He argues that the secular governments in these states will gradually weaken and it will lead to an increasingly weak state and a powerful non-state tribal community structure. This further aggravated due to the increasingly scarce water, cultivable land and other environmental resources. Pakistan in Kaplan's opinion does not exist as a coherent state, it is a country that is continuously in contest with itself . But in addition to states breaking up politically they are also breaking up physically because of climate change.
America is a very interesting entity. It is also bound to break someday. The problem is because of its multi-ethnic nature. A homogeneous nation state like Germany is built around a common education system, rallying around a national leader, and engaging in some form of conscription service so that patriotism is not difficult to imbue. This is no longer the case in America, when increasingly polarized religious identities, national policies give no alternatives that could break the 3rd dimensional traditional lines and bring back the Cold War status quo. This is important to America's survival as a nation in the long term where the Cold War era nationalism, may help it from being disintegrated on racial or religious lines.